Deep learning driven autonomous market will be worth US$1 trillion by 2030

Published: November 30, 2016

Updated: July 24, 2018

Author: Luke Jones



An autonomous market related to mobility and connectivity will develop over next 14 years, suggests KPMG. Indeed, a new “mobility services market” will grow to be worth well over US$1 trillion globally by 2030 says the research company.

The change in autonomous vehicles will be driven by deep learning, which will help develop an automotive industry built on mobility and connectivity. Deep learning is artificial intelligence at an advanced level, machine learning abilities make computerized decision-making more intuitive conclusions from queries and tasks.

KPMG released a report titled I see. I think. I drive. (I learn), and in the paper the tax and audit company says deep learning will have a profound impact on the way car manufacturers will do business:

“Deep learning is accelerating autonomy faster than anyone could’ve imagined, and it has far-reaching implications for the industry and societal mobility as a whole,” said Gary Silberg, KPMG’s national automotive leader. “If a car can’t learn, then it’s still reliant on millions and millions of lines of code, with such complexity and ambiguity, that full autonomy wouldn’t be achievable for many years to come.”

In the statement, Silberg adds that “new era in automotive product development and manufacturing – one that emphasizes the car’s nervous system, which includes computer ‘brain,’ sensors, controls, driver interaction and data storage even more than the powertrain. This is an enormous shift in organizational structure, talent acquisition and operating model for most car manufacturers.”

The report suggests the auto industry is at a “critical juncture” where for the first time in over a century, the way people use cars is changing. Autonomous vehicles will become a major market player in the coming years and insurance companies will have to adapt to the changing industry.

Carmakers will also face challenges, namely from tech companies who will muscle in on the autonomous market. KPMG says car manufacturers and tech giants will “face off in a war for specialized talent. People with deep learning expertise are in short supply and the pool of experts among those specialists is even smaller. This makes it difficult for traditional automakers to compete with tech leaders. In addition, universities cannot keep pace with the autonomous driving market demands for talent.”

In the report, KPMG identifies the key developments for automakers to contemplate if they are to survive:

  • Vehicle operation and ownership is changing – With deep learning, autonomy and mobility, car ownership is shifting from individually-owned vehicles to shared driving experiences, increasing consumer focus on mobility and transportation on demand;
  • Mobility services will be a major new market and therefore a critical battleground – By 2030, a new mobility services segment worth well over US$1 trillion dollars will emerge for products and services related to autonomy, mobility, and connectivity.
  • Most car companies won’t simply be automakers anymore – As deep learning accelerates autonomy, carmakers will make choices whether to remain pure automakers or to become mobility service providers, or both;
  • The “nervous system” will become the center of the vehicle design – Automotive product development and manufacturing is changing to emphasize the car’s nervous system, which includes computer “brain,” sensors, controls, driver interaction and data storage even more than the powertrain; and
  • Talent is the new arms race – There are precious few people capable of building deep learning systems and “automotive players” are already scrambling to find them.